Nasrallah: From the new leader Maximo to Aoun’s new PR manager
Sayyed Nasrallah’s speech, last night, shifted the crux of the problem from the external dimension to the domestic one. After freezing Hezbollah’s military activities against Israel, Nasrallah turned to the domestic situation and ‘declared’ war on the government and parliamentary majority.
Regarding the causes of the war, Nasrallah’s contradicting statements point to the fact that he is trying to exonerate himself from this war. On one hand, he did not expect the Israeli’s retaliation and attempted to justify himself by portraying Hezbollah’s abduction of the two Israelis soldiers as ‘business as usual’. On the other hand, he had information that the Israelis were planning a major attack in September. So, he had information of a major attack in September, yet he did not anticipate such a retaliation in July.
Regarding the results of the war, Nasrallah distributed good and bad points to everyone in Lebanon, the Arab world and the world in general. The result boils down to the ‘8th of March’ alliance, Syria and Iran as the winner with the rest being not only traitors but also losers. Being a Lebanese citizen does not qualify one automatically to the status of winner: Nasrallah keeps to himself the right to decide and has a set of criteria according to which he can discriminate between winners and traitors. As expected, it fits perfectly his previous allies and none of its previous opponents.
But the most important point is the domestic implication of Nasrallah’s new speech. Since the end of the war, we have been bombarded last week by the ‘new apologists’ of the Hezbollah that this historical victory will have tremendous political implications. For days, propagandists allied to the Hezbollah have been warning that the political translation of this victory is going to be far-reaching. Today, Nasrallah just unveiled what these implications are going to be: a ministerial post to General Aoun. The political translation of our historical victory, our 1000 martyrs and our destroyed country boils down to a change in a couple of ministerial posts.
Nasrallah played tonight a very dangerous game. In his speech, he attempted to instigate a Christian sectarian tension by claiming that 75% of the Christian are not represented politically due to the dictatorial majority, i.e. the Sunnis. His attempt to instigate this sectarian tension is twofold. First, if it succeeds, it will take some of the pressure of his back, and weapons, by creating a source of tension between the Christians and the Sunnis and by altering the political priority from the disarmament of the Hezbollah to the representation of the Christians. Second, if Nasrallah succeeds in changing the government, he will have with his allies more than a third of the government, thus allowing him to block completely its functioning. This will allow him to block any Lebanese cooperation with the U.N. be it on the front of the UNSCR 1701 or 1559, thus returning us to pre-14 of February 2005.